In the complicated world of South Asian politics, the recent increase in tensions between Iran and Pakistan has caught the attention of people worldwide. Given their history of distrust and occasional conflicts, the current situation is worrisome for the stability of the region. The tensions began with Iran launching an attack across the border into Pakistan’s Balochistan province, targeting what they claimed were terrorist hideouts. The Iranian foreign minister justified the action as a response to militant activities originating from Pakistan. This led to a series of actions and reactions, bringing both countries to a critical point. Pakistan swiftly responded by conducting a military operation called ‘Marg Bar Samachar’ (death to insurgents), framing it as a targeted effort to eliminate terrorists. According to Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the operation successfully removed specific terrorist hideouts in Iran’s Sistan and Baluchistan Province. Following this exchange, it seems that the situation between the two nations is now moving towards normalization.
Iran’s unexpected attack has raised questions about its goals, especially given the tense relations with the United States in other areas. It’s worth noting that on the same day as the attack, the interim prime minister of Pakistan met with Iran’s Foreign Minister at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Both countries were also involved in a joint military exercise at sea. Furthermore, there were trade delegations from Pakistan to Iran and vice versa. These events make the timing of Iran’s attack puzzling.
The situation becomes more complicated when we consider that both countries were involved in diplomatic talks, military exercises, and trade meetings on the same day. Iran’s missile strikes happened a day after they carried out similar attacks in Iraq and Syria. The big question is why Iran chose this specific time to launch these missile attacks on neighboring countries, including a nuclear state like Pakistan, with whom they have never had conflicts in the past. government, leading millions to join street protests. Economic challenges, including inflation, unemployment, and the impact of sanctions, have made life difficult for many Iranians. The financial struggles have limited economic opportunities, leaving people facing hardships with few options for progress.
Since 2017, Iran has experienced significant political unrest due to strained relations with the West, international sanctions, and economic struggles. Anti-government protests that began in December of that year have persisted, and by September 2022, millions of dissatisfied individuals across the country presented a major challenge to the clerical regime. This discontent continues to grow, fueled by ongoing issues such as environmental challenges, water scarcity, transportation problems, brain drain, immigration, and rising inflation.
Iran uses actions across borders strategically to fuel nationalist feelings and ease internal pressure. Notably, it’s the only country in the region extensively getting involved in the internal matters of neighboring states. Whether it’s Lebanon or Pakistan, Iran’s interference through proxies creates tension and instability, causing dissatisfaction among Middle Eastern neighbors dealing with the consequences of Iranian involvement in their affairs. Recent missile strikes in Iraq, Syria, and Pakistan indicate a long-standing strategy to provoke neighboring countries and the West, possibly to address domestic unrest
This time, Iran thought Iraq and Syria would respond quietly, as is typical in diplomatic situations. However, Pakistan surprised Iran with a quick and accurate response, challenging Iran’s assumptions about how the region would react to such actions. Iran also knew that a nuclear-armed Pakistan might retaliate strongly if provoked further. Simultaneously, Iran expected China to step in and mediate to prevent a worsening of relations with Pakistan. As expected, Iran and Pakistan are now working to improve their relations. This incident provides a temporary relief for Iran, which is facing internal pressures and international isolation due to its alleged support for the Houthis, whose actions have disrupted global trade, particularly in the Red Sea crisis.